As of 3 October 2026Sector Macro · Policy Uncertainty
AURA-PUI
AURA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
A daily indicator of U.S. economic policy uncertainty, calibrated from prediction-market contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket across five policy domains. Base 100 = inception.
86.63index
+0.55 1D
26th percentile since inception
Index level · since inception
Historical context
Today's percentile
26 /100
Since inception
52-week range
66.7 – 131.3
Latest at 31% of range
All-time range
54.8 – 143.2
Median 98.8
30-day volatility
8.75
Stdev of daily levels
What it measures
AURA-PUI is a real-time gauge of U.S. economic policy uncertainty. A higher reading indicates broader market-implied uncertainty about the policy outlook; a lower reading indicates compression of that uncertainty, not market improvement. Coverage spans monetary, fiscal & regulatory, trade & geopolitical, macroeconomic, and sector-specific policy domains. It is provided for informational and research purposes only.
Index details
Inception date
2024-04-20
Reference
Index level (base 100)
Universe
Kalshi, Polymarket
Update cadence
Daily
Constituents (60D avg)
34
Active domains
4 of 5
Composition
Domain
Weight (60D)
Sub-index
Monetary Policy
39.4%
65.76
Trade & Geopolitical
10.6%
93.69
Fiscal & Regulatory
45.0%
75.73
Macroeconomic
5.0%
90.81
Sector-Specific
0.0%
104.00
Top constituents (today)
Weight
Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ?
Polymarket · Monetary
21.22%
Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ?
Polymarket · Monetary
8.00%
2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5
Polymarket · Fiscal
7.52%
Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rr
Kalshi · Fiscal
6.90%
2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9
Polymarket · Fiscal
5.21%
Senatetx 26 D
Kalshi · Fiscal
3.88%
Senatetx 26 R
Kalshi · Fiscal
3.86%
Will No Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026?
Polymarket · Monetary
3.68%
Controls 2026 D
Kalshi · Fiscal
3.52%
Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting
Polymarket · Monetary
3.06%
Methodology
For each eligible contract, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline. Full methodology: aurelianhq.com/indices/aura-pui/methodology.