As of 1 July 2026Sector Macro · Policy Uncertainty
AURA-PUI
AURA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
A daily indicator of U.S. economic policy uncertainty, calibrated from prediction-market contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket across five policy domains. Base 100 = inception.
92.26index
−0.76 1D
32th percentile since inception
Index level · since inception
Historical context
Today's percentile
32 /100
Since inception
52-week range
66.7 – 131.3
Latest at 40% of range
All-time range
54.8 – 143.2
Median 100.2
30-day volatility
4.49
Stdev of daily levels
What it measures
AURA-PUI is a real-time gauge of U.S. economic policy uncertainty. A higher reading indicates broader market-implied uncertainty about the policy outlook; a lower reading indicates compression of that uncertainty, not market improvement. Coverage spans monetary, fiscal & regulatory, trade & geopolitical, macroeconomic, and sector-specific policy domains. It is provided for informational and research purposes only.
Index details
Inception date
2024-04-20
Reference
Index level (base 100)
Universe
Kalshi, Polymarket
Update cadence
Daily
Constituents (60D avg)
36
Active domains
5 of 5
Composition
Domain
Weight (60D)
Sub-index
Monetary Policy
19.3%
77.18
Trade & Geopolitical
39.1%
100.23
Fiscal & Regulatory
35.5%
76.54
Macroeconomic
4.4%
58.17
Sector-Specific
1.6%
104.00
Top constituents (today)
Weight
Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ?
Polymarket · Monetary
20.76%
US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31
Polymarket · Trade
16.55%
Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ?
Polymarket · Monetary
8.00%
Fed Rate Hike in 2026
Polymarket · Monetary
4.98%
US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31 20
Polymarket · Trade
4.29%
Kxretiremm 26
Kalshi · Fiscal
4.28%
Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0
Kalshi · Monetary
4.20%
US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3
Polymarket · Trade
4.06%
Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg
Kalshi · Fiscal
3.19%
US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18
Polymarket · Trade
3.14%
Methodology
For each eligible contract, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline. Full methodology: aurelianhq.com/indices/aura-pui/methodology.