AURA-PUI
AURA Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
A real-time measure of U.S. economic policy uncertainty across five policy domains, derived from contract prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. Published daily with intraday indicative values.
86.63?Index levels reflect prevailing policy uncertainty. Declines indicate compression of market-priced uncertainty, not index deterioration.
Index, base 100 = 2024-04-20
+0.55 (+0.64%)
AURA-PUI edged up 0.5 pts to 86.63 today, capping a week in which the index shed 14 pts. The reading is below historical average. Fiscal & regulatory contracts comprise 50% of basket weight, with monetary policy at 37%. Over the past 30 days the index is down 5.9 points as cross contract disagreement narrowed.
1D
+0.55+0.64%
1W
−13.76−13.71%
1M
−5.92−6.40%
YTD
−13.73−13.68%
1Y
−23.83−21.57%
52W H-L
66.66 – 131.29
Index composition
| Domain | Weight | Sub-index | 1D Δ | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | 36.9% | 65.76 | +0.27 | 5 |
| Trade & Geopolitical | 12.1% | 93.69 | +7.25 | 9 |
| Fiscal & Regulatory | 50.0% | 75.73 | −2.56 | 22 |
| Macroeconomic | 1.1% | 90.81 | +1.16 | 1 |
| Sector-Specific | — | — | — | 0 |
Note: Currently inactive: Sector-Specific (admitted when qualifying contracts list). Weights are post-cap (50% per-domain concentration cap). Sub-indices are computed independently per domain and aggregate into the headline AURA-PUI level.
Composition history
Monetary
Trade
Fiscal
Macro
Sector
Top constituents
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will There be No Change in Fed Interest ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 21.22% | 17.15 |
| Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates by ? | Polymarket | Monetary | 8.00% | 0.38 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 7.52% | 1.33 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 6.90% | 1.53 |
| 2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 5.21% | 2.81 |
| Senatetx 26 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.88% | 2.44 |
| Senatetx 26 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.86% | 2.38 |
| Will No Fed Rate Cuts Happen in 2026? | Polymarket | Monetary | 3.68% | 0.68 |
| Controls 2026 D | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 3.52% | 2.04 |
| Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting | Polymarket | Monetary | 3.06% | 0.72 |
| Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.96% | 2.23 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Oc | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 2.64% | 2.05 |
| Kxtrumpremove | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.51% | 1.37 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 2.41% | 0.65 |
| Kxusairanagreement 27 | Kalshi | Trade & Geo | 2.23% | 1.25 |
| Controls 2026 R | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.12% | 1.13 |
| Kximpeach 27 Mar01 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.09% | 1.65 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 2.08% | 0.87 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dd | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 2.06% | 1.28 |
| Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Dr | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.92% | 0.87 |
| Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.88% | 0.89 |
| Kxbluewavecombo 27feb | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 1.66% | 0.82 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through De | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 1.11% | 0.91 |
| Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5 | Kalshi | Macro | 1.08% | 0.57 |
| US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through No | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 0.93% | 0.79 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | 0.91% | 0.43 |
| Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0 | Kalshi | Monetary | 0.90% | 0.21 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | 0.38% | 0.12 |
| Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.25% | 0.13 |
| Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.24% | 0.16 |
| Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.21% | 0.12 |
| Kxtariffchecks 26 27 | Kalshi | Trade & Geo | 0.18% | 0.04 |
| Kximpeach 29 Jan20 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.12% | 0.08 |
| Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov | Kalshi | Trade & Geo | 0.08% | 0.02 |
| Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.07% | 0.04 |
| Kxrhouseseats 27 193 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.07% | 0.04 |
| Kximpeach 28 Jan01 | Kalshi | Fiscal & Reg | 0.05% | 0.03 |
Note: Contribution = weight × uncertainty score × 100, surfacing contracts whose weighted score actually moves the headline.
Live drivers
| Ticker | Source | Domain | Δ Price | Weight | Δ Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | +0.000 | 5.21% | ↑ +1.56 |
| Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T0 | Kalshi | Monetary | +0.000 | 0.90% | ↓ −1.25 |
| 2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5 | Polymarket | Fiscal & Reg | −0.010 | 7.52% | ↑ +0.40 |
| US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3 | Polymarket | Trade & Geo | −0.005 | 2.08% | ↓ −0.30 |
| Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting | Polymarket | Monetary | −0.001 | 3.06% | ↑ +0.23 |
Note: Δ Contribution = (weight × composite score)today − (weight × composite score)prior day, ×100. A positive value (↑) means the contract's weighted score pushed the headline higher today; a negative value (↓) pushed it lower. Newly listed constituents (no prior-day data) are flagged.
Regime occupancy
Today: Calm, 57% probabilityA 3-state hidden Markov model classifies each day's headline reading into calm, elevated, or crisis. The strip below shows the most-likely state per day, opacity-modulated by the model's confidence; uncertainty mass for the unlabelled states is split evenly in the stacked-area visualization.
Calm
Elevated
Crisis
Last 30 days
Calm 40%
Elev 37%
Crisis 23%
Last 90 days
Calm 24%
Elev 30%
Crisis 46%
Since inception
Calm 31%
Elev 34%
Crisis 35%
Recent observations
| Date | Level | Change | Const. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 105.59 | +3.78 | 35 |
| 2026-09-20 | 105.99 | +0.40 | 37 |
| 2026-09-21 | 108.76 | +2.77 | 34 |
| 2026-09-22 | 106.40 | −2.36 | 34 |
| 2026-09-23 | 105.57 | −0.83 | 34 |
| 2026-09-24 | 101.71 | −3.86 | 34 |
| 2026-09-25 | 104.53 | +2.82 | 34 |
| 2026-09-26 | 100.39 | −4.14 | 35 |
| 2026-09-27 | 95.27 | −5.12 | 37 |
| 2026-09-28 | 93.58 | −1.69 | 37 |
| 2026-09-29 | 95.69 | +2.11 | 36 |
| 2026-09-30 | 93.39 | −2.30 | 33 |
| 2026-10-01 | 92.04 | −1.35 | 36 |
| 2026-10-02 | 86.08 | −5.96 | 38 |
| 2026-10-03 | 86.63 | +0.55 | 37 |
Reconstitution timeline
Most-recent basket entry/exit events with the headline impact at the time. Default view shows the top 20; click below to expand to the latest 100 events. "MAJOR" badges flag events that met at least one of: |1D move| ≥ 10 pts, combined add+remove ≥ 4, or composition change ≥ 150%. Older history (373 events prior to the most-recent 100) is recorded in the methodology archive.
2026-10-03Headline 86.63 +0.55
−Kxdhouseseats 27 249
2026-10-02Headline 86.08 −6.16
+Kxtrumpremove+Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting
2026-10-01Headline 92.24 −0.93
+Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53+Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0+Kxusairanagreement 27
2026-09-30Headline 93.17 −0.95
−Kxdsenateseats 27 52−Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53−Kxusairanagreement 27
2026-09-29Headline 94.12 +4.67MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Oc−Kxdsenateseats 27 51−Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting
2026-09-28Headline 89.45 −1.01
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−Kxretiremm 26
2026-09-26Headline 94.72 −3.99
+Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-09-24Headline 102.34 −2.82
+Kxusairanagreement 27−Kxrecssnber 26−US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Se
2026-09-23Headline 105.16 +0.29
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Kpat−Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0
2026-09-22Headline 104.87 −1.34MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 51+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxabrahamsa 29 Jan20−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1
2026-09-20Headline 106.65 −0.17
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov
2026-09-19Headline 106.82 +5.32
+US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through De+US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through No
2026-09-18Headline 101.50 +2.16MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Fed Rate Cut by October 2026 Meeting 199−Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting−Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting−Fed Rate Hike in 2026−Will 1 Fed Rate Cut Happen in 2026?
2026-09-17Headline 99.34 +3.51MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 249+Kxdsenateseats 27 52+Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0+US X Iran Ceasefire Continues Through Se−Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-09-15Headline 92.06 +4.85
+Kxabrahamsa 29 Jan20+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxrecssnber 26
2026-09-14Headline 87.21 +0.46
+Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53+Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-09-13Headline 86.75 +1.48
+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 3
2026-09-10Headline 84.53 +1.02
+Kxdsenateseats 27 50−Will the Fed Decrease Interest Rates by ?
2026-09-09Headline 83.51 +0.74
+Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0+Kxusairanagreement 27+Will the Fed Decrease Interest Rates by ?
2026-09-07Headline 79.26 +1.91
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb
2026-09-06Headline 77.35 −0.92
+Kxloseprimarysenated 26nov03 0−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb
2026-09-05Headline 78.27 −1.83
+Fed Rate Cut by October 2026 Meeting 199
2026-09-04Headline 80.10 −11.72MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 249+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+Fed Rate Cut by December 2026 Meeting+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 3+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31−Kxdebtgrowth 28dec31 45
2026-09-03Headline 91.82 +8.06MAJOR
+2026 Balance of Power D Senate D House 9+2026 Balance of Power R Senate D House 4+2026 Balance of Power R Senate R House 5+Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting+Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting+6 more−Kxagencyelim 29 Usaid
2026-09-01Headline 84.78 −1.98
+Kxdhouseseats 27 232−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2
2026-08-30Headline 86.91 +0.74
+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxelectionemergency 26nov04
2026-08-28Headline 84.23 −1.66
+Kxdebtgrowth 28dec31 45+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-08-27Headline 85.89 +0.55
+Kxagencyelim 29 Usaid+Kximpeach 27 Mar01
2026-08-26Headline 85.34 −0.41
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg
2026-08-24Headline 88.54 +3.77
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0
2026-08-23Headline 84.77 −10.03MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0−Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxtrumpremove−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-08-21Headline 96.21 −11.11MAJOR
−Kxusairanagreement 27−Will Person F be the New Republican Nomi?−Will Ralph Norman be the New Republican ?
2026-08-18Headline 114.73 −1.24
+Kxdsenateseats 27 48−Power 28 Dh Ds Dp
2026-08-15Headline 105.55 +2.02MAJOR
+Kxtrumpremove+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxreccount 27 1−Will Russell Fry be the New Republican N?
2026-08-14Headline 103.53 −5.90
−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Will Person G be the New Republican Nomi?
2026-08-13Headline 109.43 +5.51
+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3
2026-08-12Headline 103.92 +3.25MAJOR
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50
2026-08-11Headline 100.67 −12.57MAJOR
+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+Power 28 Dh Ds Dp−Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-08-10Headline 113.24 +1.65
−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31
2026-08-08Headline 110.36 −1.48
+Kxreccount 27 1
2026-08-07Headline 111.84 −4.11
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3
2026-08-06Headline 115.95 −0.51
+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 3+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb
2026-08-05Headline 116.46 −2.45
+Will Person G be the New Republican Nomi?−Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1
2026-08-04Headline 118.91 +6.58
+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-08-02Headline 109.48 +2.67
+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18
2026-08-01Headline 106.81 −1.93
+Kximpeach 29 Jan20−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−US Announces Halt in Iran Offensive Oper
2026-07-31Headline 108.74 +2.11
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kximpeach 29 Jan20
2026-07-30Headline 106.63 +0.71
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Will the US Announce an Iran Ceasefire B?
2026-07-29Headline 105.92 +1.18
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04+Kxrecssnber 26
2026-07-27Headline 115.20 +1.44MAJOR
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13
2026-07-26Headline 113.76 −0.61
−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxelectionemergency 26nov04−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg
2026-07-23Headline 110.91 +3.81
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-07-22Headline 107.10 +8.11
+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13 −Will Mark Lynch be the New Republican No?
2026-07-20Headline 98.01 −0.09
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-07-19Headline 98.10 +0.49MAJOR
+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+US Announces Halt in Iran Offensive Oper+Will the US Announce an Iran Ceasefire B?−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-07-18Headline 97.61 +1.82
+Will Mark Lynch be the New Republican No?
2026-07-17Headline 95.79 +0.13MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52+Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-07-16Headline 95.66 −1.94
−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13
2026-07-15Headline 97.60 −4.62
+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50
2026-07-14Headline 102.22 +1.72MAJOR
+Kxelectionemergency 26nov04+Kximpeach 29 Jan20+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1+Will Person F be the New Republican Nomi?
2026-07-13Headline 100.50 −1.13MAJOR
+Will Ralph Norman be the New Republican ?+Will Russell Fry be the New Republican N?−Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-07-12Headline 101.63 −0.87
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-07-10Headline 98.78 +6.76MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kximpeach 27 Mar01
2026-07-09Headline 92.02 +1.50
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0−Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ju
2026-07-07Headline 89.62 +0.10
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01+Kxtariffchecks 26 27
2026-07-04Headline 92.19 −2.63
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52
2026-07-03Headline 94.82 +1.33
+Kxbluetsunamicombo 27feb−US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31 20
2026-07-02Headline 93.49 +2.65
+Kxlosereelectiondsen 2026 0−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52
2026-07-01Headline 90.84 +5.28
−Kximpeach 29 Jan20−Kxtrumpvslaughter
2026-06-30Headline 85.56 +3.35
+Kxretiremm 26
2026-06-29Headline 82.21 +3.51
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg
2026-06-28Headline 78.70 −2.17
+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec
2026-06-25Headline 75.91 −2.25MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-06-23Headline 78.94 −15.54MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab
2026-06-22Headline 94.48 −15.10MAJOR
+US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13 +US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18 +US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31 +US Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31 20−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5
2026-06-20Headline 105.57 +6.93
+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb
2026-06-19Headline 98.64 +3.61MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−US Iran Nuclear Deal by June 30−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by July 3
2026-06-18Headline 95.03 +5.69MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea+Kxtrumpvslaughter−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Decemb−Will the Text of the US Iran Agreement B?
2026-06-17Headline 89.34 −1.37MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T2+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-06-16Headline 90.71 −0.38MAJOR
+Kxretiremm 26+Will the Text of the US Iran Agreement B?−Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-06-14Headline 103.50 −4.88MAJOR
+Kxtrumpvslaughter+Kxusairanagreement 27 28+Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ju−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4
2026-06-12Headline 108.84 +2.33MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Fed Rate Cut by July 2026 Meeting 577
2026-06-11Headline 106.51 −3.22MAJOR
+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Pheg+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxusairanagreement 27 28
2026-06-10Headline 109.73 +9.29MAJOR
+Kxbluewavecombo 27feb+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 1
2026-06-09Headline 100.44 +1.15
+Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxbluewavecombo 27feb
2026-06-08Headline 99.29 +1.39MAJOR
−Kximpeach 27 Mar01−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov
2026-06-07Headline 97.90 −1.88MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4.5+Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50
2026-06-04Headline 106.34 +1.64MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxdsenateseats 27 49−Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxtrumpvslaughter
2026-06-03Headline 104.70 −2.76MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 49+Kxelectionbill 27jan01−Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxlosemajority 27jan01
2026-06-02Headline 107.46 +5.72MAJOR
+Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxdhouseseats 27 210−Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45−Kxrhouseseats 27 193−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 7
2026-06-01Headline 101.74 +1.55MAJOR
+Kximpeach 27 Mar01+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Kxusairanagreement 27 28−Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20
2026-05-31Headline 100.19 −2.77
+Kxmidtermhappen 2026 T50+Kxusairanagreement 27 26nov−Kxnextspeaker 31 Hjef
2026-05-30Headline 102.96 −6.82MAJOR
+Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000−Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec−Fed Rate Cut by June 2026 Meeting
2026-05-29Headline 109.78 −3.63MAJOR
+Kxlcpimaxyoy 27 P4−Kxloseprimarysenater 26nov03 2−Kxsenatetxr 26 Jc−Kxsenatetxr 26 Kp−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
2026-05-28Headline 113.41 +0.81MAJOR
+Kxlosemajority 27jan01+Kxtrumpvslaughter−Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd−Kxelectionbill 27jan01
2026-05-27Headline 112.60 −0.34MAJOR
+Kxbalancepowercombo 27feb Rd+Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea+Fed Rate Cut by June 2026 Meeting−Kxdsenateseats 27 Above52−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Hlut
2026-05-26Headline 112.94 −0.62MAJOR
+Kxdhouseseats 27 210+Kxdsenateseats 27 Below45+Kxrhouseseats 27 193−Kxdsenateseatsh 27 B53−US Iran Nuclear Deal by May 31 974−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 3−US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by May 31−Will Any US Senator Enter Iran by June 3?
2026-05-25Headline 113.56 +4.19
−Kxratecutcount 26dec31 T1−Kxrhouseseats 27 193
2026-05-24Headline 109.37 +13.72MAJOR
+Kxnextspeaker 31 Hjef+Kxrhouseseats 27 193+Kxusairanagreement 27 26dec+Kxusairanagreement 27 28+Kxusairanagreement 27 29jan20−Kxsenatemed 26 Gra−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Tgab−Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Ma−Will Trump and Putin Meet Next in Russia?
2026-05-23Headline 95.65 −5.98MAJOR
+Kxdeportations 27jan01 T400000+US X Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 7−Kximpeach 27 Jan01−Kxtrumpadminleave 26dec31 Klea
AURA-PUI is a daily index of U.S. economic policy uncertainty, built from prediction market prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. It covers five policy domains: monetary, fiscal and regulatory, trade and geopolitical, macroeconomic outcomes, and sector-specific. The index aggregates uncertainty signals from active, policy-relevant contracts into a single daily headline level (base 100, inception April 20, 2024).
Inputs
AURA-PUI draws on binary and multi-outcome contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. For each contract, the index uses the current price, recent price dynamics, traded volume, and, where available, the quoted bid-ask spread. Contracts are screened for policy relevance and assigned to one of the five domains.
Construction
For each eligible contract, AURA-PUI computes an uncertainty score. Scores are normalized across the basket and weighted to reflect contract size and quote tightness. Concentration rules cap how much any single domain or any single contract can contribute to the headline.
Revisions
v2.6 (June 10, 2026): Layer-2 conditional-uncertainty normalization changed from median-referenced z-scores to a pooled cross-sectional ECDF, removing score saturation; index scaling re-anchored level-neutrally at the cutover; point-in-time daily volume measurement adopted for Polymarket constituents; daily values finalize at T+1. The eligible contract universe was simultaneously restocked (+104 markets ahead of the 2026 midterms), so prints around the cutover date reflect both the methodology revision and the broader universe. Published values dated before the cutover are locked and unaffected.
v2.7 (September 16, 2026): Three construction fixes from an engine audit. The 50% domain concentration cap and the score-proportional per-contract caps are now enforced jointly as a single projection; previously the per-contract step could leave individual weights above their documented caps (13% of published domain-days in the sub-indices, and the headline on days a post-hoc domain re-cap fired), and per-contract enforcement now uses an exact water-fill. Domain persistence activates only when a domain has no live constituents and carries its last value at a decaying weight rather than decaying the value itself. Index scaling re-anchored level-neutrally at the cutover from a trailing-60-day comparison of old and new construction on identical data (headline effect about 2 points, daily correlation 0.98; sub-indices essentially unchanged). Published values dated before the cutover are locked and unaffected; historical cap exceedances remain in the record as published and are disclosed here.
Data sources
Aurelian fetches contract prices via public APIs and computes derived series independently. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or co-publish this index.
- Informational use only. AURA-PUI is provided for informational and research purposes. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to trade any contract, and not a benchmark for any financial product.
- Independent publisher. Aurelian is not affiliated with Kalshi, Polymarket, or any contract issuer or exchange. Source venues do not endorse, sponsor, or review this index or its methodology.
- Methodology may evolve. Aurelian reserves the right to refine the index methodology. Material revisions are documented in the methodology paper. Historical levels are not retroactively recomputed under revised methodology.
- Data quality. Prediction-market liquidity varies; periods of low aggregate liquidity may increase index sensitivity to single contracts. The methodology documents the cap and blending rules that mitigate this.
- Past performance. AURA-PUI is a measurement, not a tradable instrument. Historical levels do not indicate future levels of policy uncertainty.
Index Updates and Research
Contact
Questions or data requests: support@aurelianhq.com